I'm a moderator at MathOverflow. A user there suggested migration to Cross Validated of this post, https://mathoverflow.net/questions/228170/probability-same-football-square-wins-all-four-quarters, but I wasn't certain it would be considered on-topic. If it is, then I will gladly migrate it over.
First things first: It looks like the subject of the post is on topic. It's a probability question, and probability is one of our topics.
Arguably it's not quite migratable yet (under the usual maxim of 'don't migrate things that would just close') since it looks on first read like the post isn't yet clearly explaining the situation, but my opinion is nevertheless that you can migrate, and we'll try to get the OP to clarify a little further.